主办方：安工大管工·危机管理与决策科学研究中心（CMDS-Center）

报告1：Emergency decision-making combining cumulative prospect theory and group decision-making

With respect to the characteristic of risk and the potential evolvement of scenarios in emergency management analysis, this study proposes an emergency decision-making method with interval probability based on cumulative prospect theory and group decision-making. Under emergency risk environment, there is a tremendous need to consider decision-maker’s psychological behavior which affects the decision results. In addition, an emergency decision generally involves joint participation among departments, which inevitably brings about group decision-making. Therefore, aiming at decision problems in emergency management, this paper provides an algorithm of emergency group decision-making considering psychological behaviors. For illustration and verification, a numerical example and two comparisons are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed method. The contribution of this study is characterized by three aspects. First, cumulative prospect theory is introduced to quantify the impact of psychological behaviors. Second, group decision-making is considered as a think tank, which makes the decision more persuasive than single-person methods. Third, this study proposes a novel intelligent optimization algorithm, plant growth simulation algorithm, to integrate the different individual evaluations.

报告2：A group decision method based on prospect theory for emergency situations

Urgent and critical situations or so-called emergency events, such as terrorist attacks and natural disasters, often require crucial decisions. When an emergency event occurs, emergency decision making plays an important role in dealing with it, and hence, its importance nowadays is increasing. In the real world, it is difficult for only one decision maker to take a comprehensive decision for coping with an emergency event. Consequently, many practical emergency problems are often characterized by a group emergency decision making (GEDM) scheme. Different studies show that human beings are usually bounded rational under risk and uncertainty, and their psychological behavior is very important in the decision-making process. However, such behavior is neglected in current GEDM studies. Therefore, this study proposes a novel GEDM method that considers experts’ psychological behavior in the GEDM process. The method is then applied to a case study and compared with other related approaches. Finally, discussions are presented to illustrate the novelty, feasibility, and validity of the proposed GEDM method, showing the importance of experts’ psychological behavior in GEDM.

时间：2018.04.21（周六）14:30-17:30

地点：汇文楼A411室

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2018-04-20